The WTO on Thursday sharply raised its global trade growth forecast for 2026, with merchandise trade riding the AI boom and proving more resilient than expected amid the Middle East crisis. Thanks to supply chain adaptations and the surge in artificial intelligence investments, the World Trade Organization now projects 3.9 percent growth in the volume of merchandise trade this year, up from the 1.9 percent predicted in March. The WTO is forecasting 4.1 percent trade growth next year, up from the 2.6 percent predicted seven months ago. Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2027, it added. "The numbers reflect trade resilience in action," said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. "When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them," she said. "Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI." The WTO said that while disruptions of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had reduced energy supplies and raised prices of key energy products and fertilisers, most economies outside of the region had remained resilient. It said supply chains had successfully adapted to disruptions in the energy, fertiliser and transport markets caused by the Iran war. Merchandise trade grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026, exceeding WTO expectations. Global crude oil exports fell by only about six percent, and liquefied natural gas exports dropped by one percent. Meanwhile global container traffic actually increased by 3.9 percent during the first seven months of 2026. And strong demand linked to AI investment "more than offset the negative effects" of the conflict. Increased spending on semiconductors, data centres and digital infrastructure raised demand for imported AI-enabling goods, providing a significant boost to global goods trade. Trade in semiconductors, servers and other equipment essential to AI surged by 67 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026. That alone accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, accelerating an expansion trend that was already robust in 2024 and 2025, the WTO said. WTO chief economist Robert Staiger told reporters the organisation was "surprised" that the Middle East conflict did not reduce trade as much as had been feared, and likewise "surprised in the strength of the AI investment boom." "But any slowdown in AI investment could precipitate a slowdown in trade," he warned. In 2026, Asia is expected to record the fastest merchandise export growth (9.9 percent), followed by North America (5.7 percent). Export performance is projected to remain weak in Europe, down 0.1 percent, and to contract sharply in the Middle East, down 17.2 percent. (AFP) Edited by Cecil Wong

The trust that holds US President Donald Trump's assets bought millions of US dollars' worth of Meta and SpaceX securities in August, according to a document released on Thursday. Although the trust is managed independently, the thousands of trades made since the start of Trump's second term have drawn accusations of conflicts of interest. Many companies – notably SpaceX, with its US government contracts – stand to be directly affected by decisions of the Trump administration. According to the filing posted by the Office of Government Ethics (OGE), between US$5 million and US$25 million in shares of Meta, the parent of Facebook and Instagram, were purchased. In SpaceX's case, the purchase was of bonds – the company's debt – totalling between US$1 million and US$5 million. The trust also took smaller stakes in three data centre operators: CoreWeave, American Tower and Cogent Communications. The largest of those was in American Tower, at between US$51,000 and US$115,000. Several tech players also appear on the list, including AI chipmaker Nvidia – whose CEO advises Trump on AI – and Microsoft. As in previous months, the trust was highly active in the markets, with 517 transactions in August. The Meta purchases were by far the largest of any company in the filing. The US president's assets are held in a trust administered by his son Donald Jr. (AFP) Edited by Cecil Wong

Oil prices soared on Thursday following reports that the United States could launch fresh attacks on Iran before next month's midterm elections, risking further supply disruptions. But the cost surge eased slightly after US President Donald Trump ruled out hitting Iran before the November vote, claiming Washington was holding "productive discussions" with Tehran. Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark, rallied to as high as US$105.88 a barrel before retreating to US$104.28. The main US contract, West Texas Intermediate, reached as high as US$93.20 per barrel but eventually closed at US$91.49. The Atlantic magazine reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up options for hitting sites in Iran ahead of midterms on November 3. But with Trump's Republican party standing a chance of losing both houses of Congress, an escalation in the US-Iran conflict could put even more pressure on the president. Already, Americans are battling record-high diesel prices. Following the surge in energy costs, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Thursday that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections." Still, oil markets are reacting not only to nervousness over Trump's plans but to "increased Iranian attacks on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. Another concern is "Hurricane Isaias coming through the Gulf of Mexico and shutting in a significant amount of oil production," he said. Meanwhile Yemen's Houthis took aim at Riyadh airport with missiles and warned staff at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia to leave to avoid being targeted as hostilities escalate. "The renewed rise in oil prices is intensifying inflation concerns and adding to upward pressure on bond yields," said Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada. Yields on government bonds have recently touched highs unseen in more than 20 years as investors fear sustained inflation will force central banks to raise interest rates, thus slowing economic growth and hitting equity market valuations. The surge in oil prices weighed on stock markets, with Wall Street's main indexes mostly closing lower. Europe's main markets finished the day in the red, including London, although higher oil prices benefited energy majors. Asia's leading stock markets tracked losses on Wednesday on Wall Street, where technology firms pulled back from recent gains. On Wall Street, shares in SpaceX slid 4.2 percent following a Financial Times report that Elon Musk's firm is aiming to raise US$40 billion in bank loans and debt to further its purchases of AI chips from Nvidia. A Financial Times report that OpenAI is bringing in about US$20 billion less in annualised revenue than investors were led to believe also weighed on markets. "It raises the question about all AI companies," said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments. "If OpenAI is missing revenue estimates, what does that mean for the other AI companies?" The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent, to 7,765, the Dow rose 0.1 percent, to 51,232, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3 percent, to 27,193. (AFP) Edited by Robert Kemp

Attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz have continued as a war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia intensified.